Hurricane Data

000

AXNT20 KNHC 121714

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1714 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stronger cold front is

expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight

accompanied by fresh to strong winds on either side of it. The

front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern

Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and

stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force

winds southwest winds will precede the front, with the gale-force

winds being confined to north of about 29N Friday night. Winds

will decrease bellow gale-force Sat afternoon. The cold front

portion will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary

portion weakens. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast

issued by the National Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N14W and

extends to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from that point to near

08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 02N to 05N

and east of 21.5W.

GULF OF AMERICA

A pre-frontal trough extends from 21N95W to 26N03W. Isolated

moderate convection is depicted along the trough axis. A mid-level

trough is supporting isolated to scattered showers across the

basin. Moderate or weaker winds along with seas 1-4 ft prevails,

except for seas to 5 ft offshore of Veracruz.

For the forecast, a strong cold front in the far NW Gulf will

sweep across the basin through tonight exiting the area early on

Fri. A pre-frontal trough in the western Gulf will sustain fresh

to locally strong northwest to north winds near Tampico and

Veracruz through Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to locally

fresh N winds are expected in the wake of the cold front. High

pressure will build southward into the region this weekend, with

increasing easterly winds as the high shifts eastward Sun. Fresh

to strong east winds are likely across portions of the northern

Gulf starting on Sun as the pressure gradient increases. Looking

ahead, a second cold front should move offshore the Texas coast

Mon morning. The strong east winds will shift to mostly the NE

Gulf Mon and Mon night as the front translates eastward across the

Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the region

and a 1008 mb low offshore Colombia is causing fresh to strong

trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere

winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. A trough extends

from 22N83W to 17N85W in the NW Caribbean. This is promoting

scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection

north of 13N between the trough and 79W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the

central and eastern Caribbean into tonight, with mainly moderate

winds elsewhere. The pressure gradient will diminish starting Fri

as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, leading to a

weakening of the trades. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are

likely behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat and

Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades may become

reestablished over the south central Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A weak cold front extends from 31N75W to south of Fort Pierce,

Florida, where it becomes stationary along the Florida Peninsula.

Scattered moderate convection prevail north of 27N between

71W-79W. Southwest fresh to strong winds are ahead of the cold

front with seas 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is depicted

from central Cuba to 29N between 63W and 79W. Similar convection

is also found from 20N to 27N between 57W and 61W. Two weak

frontal boundaries extend across the subtropical north Atlantic -

one from 27N55W to 31N35W and one from 21N44W to 26N15W. These

fronts have diminished the typical pressure gradient across

forecast waters, resulting the remainder of winds across the area

being moderate or weaker. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 23N east of

30W due to residual W swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southwest winds

ahead of a weak cold front off the NE Florida coast will diminish

later today as the front dissipates. A new stronger cold front is

expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight

accompanied by fresh to strong winds on either side of it. The

front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern

Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and

stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. Fresh to gale-force

winds southwest winds will precede the front, with the gale-force

winds being confined to north of about 29N. The cold front portion

will shift east of 55W late Sun while the stationary portion

weakens. On Sun, winds will briefly diminish below fresh speeds

over the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a building Bermuda High

should increase northeast winds up to fresh to strong speeds south

of 27N west of 65W.

$$ KRV