Hurricane Data

000

AXNT20 KNHC 251040

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1030 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will

continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones

today through this evening as strong high pressure builds

southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE

of the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along

27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to

near gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20

ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north

of 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning.

The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central

Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly

through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous

marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid

these affected areas.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website

https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level

trough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined

with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain

over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and

the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance

indicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander

northward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by

abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to

north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and

Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall

will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash

flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the

International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more

information.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near

14N16W southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to

10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen

from 04N to 25N between 20W-41W, and from 09N to 14N between

56W-61W.

GULF OF AMERICA

A strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and

into the central Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to

E winds across most of the E Gulf region, except locally strong E

of 86W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas

prevail, with locally rough seas offshore NW Florida.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high

pressure and a low pressure forecast to deepen near the central

Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over

the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits through early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please see the Special Features section above for information

about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba,

Hispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther

east through the early part of the upcoming week.

A broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward

across E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica near 19N75W. Numerous

moderate to strong convection is ahead of this low under an area

of upper level diffluence that covers Hispaniola and adjacent

waters. Gust to gale force winds and rough seas are likely within

this area of convection south of Hispaniola between 68W and 75W.

Winds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to

fresh from the NNW while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of

72W. Seas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W

and 78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the

low pressure E of Jamaica.

For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the

NW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward

through Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and

thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage.

The broad surface trough over the central Bahamas that extends

across E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica will drift eastward

through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will

continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America

through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and

moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of Jamaica through

late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan

Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to

fresh ESE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to

moderate speeds by Mon evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section above for information

about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy

rainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos

Islands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from near 31N48W to 28N65W. There is a

1013 mb low just E of the central Bahamas while earlier scatt data

also showed the presence of a stronger low of 1012 mb south of the

front near 26N65W. A surface trough then extends southward from

this low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These features are

supporting scattered moderate convection across the Atlantic

offshores, except S of 24N between 55W and 63W. Widespread strong

to gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front or

across many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores

ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters,

providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas,

except for strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands where

rough seas are ongoing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will

continue to develop across the western and central offshore zones

today through this evening as strong high pressure builds

southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE

of the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along

27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to

near gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20

ft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north

of 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning.

The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central

Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly

through Thu.

$$

Ramos