Hurricane Data

000

AXNT20 KNHC 132105

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2000 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 17N,

moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated

strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 43W and 47W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49.5W, south of

18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are found

near this wave.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues

southwestward to 08N36W to 10N51W. The ITCZ extends from 10N51W

to near 12N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is observed from 04N to 11N between Africa and 44W. Similar

convection is noted near the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 17N

between 54W and 66W.

GULF OF AMERICA

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery

over the SE Gulf toward Tampa Bay, Florida southward to the

Florida Keys with a surface trough over the interior peninsula.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are also found from 24N to

28N between 87W and 97W due to moist SW flow. Otherwise, a 1018 mb

high is at the surface, analyzed near 28N87W. A weak pressure

pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic

flow over the NE half of the basin along with 1-2 ft seas, and

moderate SE flow over the SW half of the basin along with 2-4 ft

seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf

will continue to support relatively tranquil conditions to most of

the waters into Tue. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche,

where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan

Peninsula each evening, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds.

Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from

the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds

over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough

seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate to

strong convection is in the SW Caribbean south of 12N near the

monsoon trough extending from the NE Pacific Ocean. A tight

pressure gradient is between the subtropical ridge north of the

islands and lower pressures in Colombia which continues to sustain

strong to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the central

Caribbean. Rough seas are occurring in these waters. Fresh to

strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward

Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly

winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N,

including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical

ridge north of the islands and lower pressures associated with

the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near-gale

easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean for

the next several days. Strong winds are expected tonight in the

Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes

are expected over the next few days in the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Of note, Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the ongoing

easterly gap wind event over the Straits of Gibraltar. This

warning will continue through 14/06Z.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from

29N47W to 20N43W with isolated to scattered moderate convection

within 180 nm mainly east of the trough. Otherwise, 1019 mb high

pressure is analyzed at 27N69W with only isolated convection found

across the remainder of the basin aside from the tropical waves

and monsoon trough/ITCZ discussed above. A rather weak pressure

gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker

winds across the waters, except moderate to fresh in the NE

waters, and fresh winds from northern Hispaniola to the Windward

Passage. Seas of 3-4 ft dominate the waters north of 10N and west

of 55W across the offshore waters zones, and 4-locally 6 ft

elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, trades north of Hispaniola into the

Windward Passage will be fresh into Mon. On Tue, strong high

pressure building southward through the eastern United States will

bring a cold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to

fresh to locally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of

the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to

later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to

move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters,

bringing thunderstorms.

$$

Lewitsky